June 15, 2015
With all the debate over whether the latest generation of smartwatches will succeed or fail, I’m reminded of a funny memo about predictions that circulated around our office last summer. It was a list of Best in Show winners at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES). Given that an esteemed jury selected them, you might think they were good. If so, you’d be very wrong. Nearly every product on the list was a failure, not least the Motorola Xoom and the Palm Pre.
One big reason experts aren’t good at predicting success or failure in innovation is that they’re experts. If you spend all your time looking at new devices, you are nothing like a normal person. The Palm Pre did have an awesome interface—if you happen to be an interface connoisseur. But normal people don’t get excited over such things, and they’re going to be the ones who will actually determine…read more
By Ben Reubenstein